Trump vs. Biden Political Contest Horary Electoral College Snapshot Forecast for August 30, 2020 – Members

Political Contest Horary: The consensus Electoral College Map forecast based on the latest political contest horary results of the key battleground states for August 30th augurs a close contest in November. Wisconsin and Nebraska 2nd District move from Toss-Up to Leans Republican; Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, and Main 2nd District move from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Michigan and Minnesota move from lean Democrat to Toss-Up status, although will remain with the Democratic column for the time being.

Note: If the political contest horary augurs a difference of less then 2% between Biden and Trump, will display on the electoral map as either light-blue or light-pink. States are shown as leaning toward a candidate if the margin is 5 to 9.99% are colored blue or red. Likely is 10 to 14.99%, with states shown as safe where the margin is 15% or more are colored dark blue or dark red.

Election bellwether states in the United States are states that vote in alignment with respect to the outcome of presidential elections. The strongest bellwether states are those which back the winning candidate in most elections.

Ohio – 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.5%), perfect since 1964. A Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
Florida – 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (91.3%). Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (89.7%). A Must Win State for Biden.
Missouri – 3 misses (1956, 2008, 2012) from 1904 on (89.7%). A Must Win State for Trump in 2020.
New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (88.9%). A Must Win State for Biden.
Tennessee – 3 misses (1960, 2008, 2012) from 1928 on (87.0%). A Must Win State for Trump.

Note: In elections since 2000, only two states remained 100 percent accurate in forecasting the winner, Florida, and Ohio.

Political Forecast Track Record of Political Contest Horary Forecast System since 2007:

Has an 80% Accurate Track Record for the 2018 U.S. “Closely Contested” Midterm Elections
Accurately Predicted the Outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
Has a 92% Accurate Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College
Has an 87% Accurate Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections
Has an 88% Accurate Track Record for the 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College
Has an 83% Accurate Track Record for the 2010 U.S. “Too Close To Call” Midterm Elections
Accurately Predicted the Outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election
Has a 96% Accurate Track Record for the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Elections Electoral College
Has an 80% Accurate Track Record for the 2008 U.S. Presidential “Too Close To Call” Primary Elections

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