Election Bellwether States and Counties in the United States

A bellwether is a sociological term that is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends. In the stock market, a bellwether is a stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, industry, or the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks, therefore, serve as short term guides

In politics, the term more often applies in a metaphorical sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter.

Election bellwether states in the United States are states that vote in alignment with respect to the outcome of presidential elections. The strongest bellwether states are those which back the winning candidate in most elections.

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

• Ohio – 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.5%, slightly “too Republican”), perfect since 1964. Currently the longest perfect streak.
• Florida – 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (91.3%, slightly “too Republican”).
• Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (89.7%, slightly “too Democratic”).
• Missouri – 3 misses (1956, 2008, 2012) from 1904 on (89.7%, slightly “too Republican”). Was often referred to as the “Missouri bellwether“. Donald Trump won Missouri in 2016 by almost 19 points, which suggests it will likely be less of a bellwether state in future elections.
• New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (88.9%, slightly “too Democratic”). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in both 2000 and 2016. Additionally these are the only misses in the history of the state of New Mexico since becoming part of the Union.
• Tennessee – 3 misses (1960, 2008, 2012) from 1928 on (87.0%, slightly “too Republican”). The state has now gone Republican in thirteen of the last 17 elections.

Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2016:

• Ohio – 29 wins out of 31 elections (93.5%)
• New Mexico – 24 wins out of 27 elections (88.8%)
• Illinois – 26 wins out of 31 elections (83.8%)
• Nevada – 26 wins out of 31 elections (83.8%)

Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The strongest bellwether counties are those which back the winning candidate in all, or almost all, elections.

• Valencia County, New Mexico – perfect with the electoral college winner since 1952 (longest current perfect streak)
• Vigo County, Indiana (county seat: Terre Haute) – 2 misses (1908, 1952) from 1888 on, perfect since 1956. From 1960 to 2004, Vigo County had been within 3 percent of the national presidential vote every election. In 2008, Vigo County again voted with the winner, but Obama’s percentage of 57.3% was about 4.4% above Obama’s national vote. In 2012, Vigo kept its streak going, voting for President Obama, 49.5% to Romney’s 48.6%. Vigo County continued the trend in 2016, with election winner Donald Trump winning the county 55.1% to Hillary Clinton‘s 40%; as in 2008, the final percentages were more than 3 percent different from the national popular vote, which Clinton won 48.2% to Trump’s 46.1%. Vigo County is particularly important because it is in Indiana which declares early in the evening, meaning it can be one of the first signs of a winner.
• Westmoreland County, Virginia (county seat: Montross) – two misses since 1928 (in 1948 and 1960), perfect since 1964.
• Ottawa County, Ohio (county seat: Port Clinton) – one miss since 1948 (in 1960), perfect since 1964.
• Wood County, Ohio (county seat: Bowling Green) – one miss since 1964 (in 1976), perfect since 1980.^[6][9]
• Kent County, Delaware – two misses since 1928 (in 1948 and in 1992).
• Coös County, New Hampshire (county seat: Lancaster) – two misses since 1892 (in 1968 and 2004)
• Essex County, Vermont – one miss since 1964 (in 1976), perfect since 1980.
• Juneau County, Wisconsin – one miss since 1952 (in 1960), perfect since 1964.
• Sawyer County, Wisconsin – one miss since 1952 (in 1960), perfect since 1964.
• Sargent County, North Dakota (county seat: Forman) – one miss since 1948 (in 1988)^[10]
• Blaine County, Montana (county seat: Chinook) – one miss since 1916 (in 1988)
• Clallam County, Washington – two misses (1968, 1976) since 1920.
• Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) – one miss since 1972 (in 2016).
• Ventura County, California – two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016).
• Merced County, California (county seat Merced) – one miss since 1972 (in 2016).
• Hidalgo County, New Mexico (county seat: Lordsburg) – one miss since 1928 (in 1968), perfect since 1972.^[6]
• Bexar County, Texas (county seat: San Antonio) – two misses since 1932 (in 1968 and 2016).
• Val Verde County, Texas – two misses since 1924 (in 1968 and 2016)
• Hillsborough County, Florida (county seat: Tampa) – two misses since 1928 (in 1992 and 2016). Although its history as a bellwether is shorter than others, the fact that the county is in a swing state and recent demographic changes strengthen its importance.
• Calhoun County, South Carolina – one miss since 1972 (in 1980), perfect since 1984.
• Colleton County, South Carolina – one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984.
• Darlington County, South Carolina – one miss since 1972 (in 1980), perfect since 1984.
• Washington County, Maine – one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980.