Trump vs. Biden Political Contest Horary Electoral College Snapshot Forecast for July 12, 2020

POLLS: Based on the latest set of composite state polls Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska-2  have moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; Maine moves from Leans to Likely Democratic; Georgia moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; ME-2 moves from Likely to Leans Republican. Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Ohio moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up and Alaska and Missouri from Safe to Likely Republican

Biden has reached the “magic” number in Michigan (50-44) and Pennsylvania (50-40), and is very close in Wisconsin (48-39) and Florida (49-40). This has to be good news, despite the fact that we’re months away from the election.

“Biden’s lead over Trump has been both incredibly stable and unusually large,” Geoffrey Skelley notes at FiveThirtyEight, and he “is verging on a landslide. That’s not a word we use lightly.” “

PREDICTION MARKETS: Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: 

Tilt (<60%) Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Political Contest Horary: The consensus Electoral College Pap forecast based on the latest Political Contest Horary forecast for July 12th augurs a strong Republican mandate election in November. Maine moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Republican. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and NE-2 move from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican; Arizona, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move from Leans to Likely Republican. Wisconsin moves from Toss-Up to lean Republican.

Note: If the political contest horary augurs a difference of less then 2% between Biden and Trump, will display on the electoral map as either light-blue or light-pink. States are shown as leaning toward a candidate if the margin is 5 to 9.99% are colored blue or red.  Likely is 10 to 14.99%, with states shown as safe where the margin is 15% or more are colored dark blue or dark red.

Political Contest horary includes not only projections for all six battleground states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, but also states rated safe by political pundits. Additional forecasts will be added as they become available.

Political Forecast Track Record of William Stickevers:

• Has an 80% Accurate Track Record for the 2018 U.S. “Closely Contested” Midterm Elections
• Accurately Predicted the Outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
• Has a 92% Accurate Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College
• Has an 87% Accurate Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections
• Has an 88% Accurate Track Record for the 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College
• Has an 83% Accurate Track Record for the 2010 U.S. “Too Close To Call” Midterm Elections
• Accurately Predicted the Outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election
• Has a 96% Accurate Track Record for the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Elections Electoral College
• Has an 80% Accurate Track Record for the 2008 U.S. Presidential “Too Close To Call” Primary Elections