Trump vs. Biden Political Contest Horary Electoral College Snapshot Forecast for May 24, 2020

Originally posted May 24, 2020

A consensus electoral map forecast for the 2020 presidential election based on the latest Political Contest Horary Forecast method. This map includes not only projections for all six battleground states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, but also states rated safe by political pundits. Additional forecasts will be added as they become available. 

May 24: Maine, moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Republican. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and NE-2 move from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican; Arizona, Iowa, ME-2 and Ohio move from Leans to Likely Republican. Wisconsin moves from Likely Democrat to Toss-Up

Note: If the political contest horary augurs a difference between Biden and Trump is less than 5%, these will display as light-blue or light-pink toss-up states. States are shown as leaning toward a candidate if the margin is 5 to 9.99% are colored blue or red.  Likely is 10 to 14.99%, with states shown as safe where the margin is 15% or more are colored dark blue or dark red.

Political Forecast Track Record of William Stickevers:

• Has an 80% Accurate Track Record for the 2018 U.S. “Closely Contested” Midterm Elections
• Accurately Predicted the Outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
• Has a 92% Accurate Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College
• Has an 87% Accurate Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections
• Has an 88% Accurate Track Record for the 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College
• Has an 83% Accurate Track Record for the 2010 U.S. “Too Close To Call” Midterm Elections
• Accurately Predicted the Outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election
• Has a 96% Accurate Track Record for the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Elections Electoral College
• Has an 80% Accurate Track Record for the 2008 U.S. Presidential “Too Close To Call” Primary Elections

Las Vegas, NV·Posted May 24, 2020