Risk of Armageddon Has Risen Dramatically

BCA Research global chief strategist Peter Berezin published a report with the shocking title “Rising Risk Of A Nuclear Apocalypse”. Berezin writes that “the risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically” and is now at an “uncomfortably high 10% chance” for the following reasons:

• If Putin feels that he has no future, he may try to take everyone down with him. The collapse in the ruble, and what is sure to be a major plunge of living standards across Russia, could foment internal opposition to Putin. A quiet retirement is not an option for him.

• Although there is a huge margin of error around any estimate, subjectively, we would assign an uncomfortably high 10% chance of a  civilization-ending global nuclear war over the next 12 months. These odds place some credence on Brandon Carter’s highly controversial Doomsday Argument.