2020 Election Weekly Update: Biden Must Win Back Swing Voters to Achieve Victory in November

NSA Robert O’Brien, a Trump appointee, yesterday appeared on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” and said of China: “They’d like to see the President lose.” Unlike Russia, which would like to sow chaos and have Americans become disenchanted with the whole idea of democracy, China is concerned about trade and wants smoother relations with its best customer. Still, O’Brien said “they’ve engaged in cyberattacks and phishing and that sort of thing with respect to our election infrastructure, with respect to websites and that sort of thing.” So in the end, the election may come down to whether the Russians or the Chinese have the best hackers and how far their masters are willing to go and how fast. One observer in the know said Russia is like a tornado and China is like climate change—slower, but in the end, deadlier.

Democrats must win back swing voters (voters who voted for Obama in 2012 and then switched to Trump in 2016) in order to reclaim the White House and the Senate in 2020. While swing voters are going to play a critical role in the November presidential election, they are not the only factor associated with how the presidential election will be won. For Biden, this means galvanizing the discontent youth vote among Millennials hoping the large-scale protest and anger the streets throughout cities across the nation will translate into a big voter turnout for the Democrats. For Trump, it means doing what is necessary through the bully pulpit of his office to engage swing voters to remain in his column while he continues to improve his message and performance with suburban voters. Both scenarios are easier said than done for both Biden and Trump with the level of economic uncertainty about the future continues to remain high.

Below is the latest Political Contest Horary Electoral College Map Forecast for August 9, 2020

State Changes

Arizona from Toss-up to Tilt Republican
Florida from Toss-up to Tilt Republican
Georgia from Lean Republican to Likely Republican
Iowa from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Kansas from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Maine (statewide) from Solid Democratic to Likely Democrat
Maine’s 2nd District from Tilt Republican to Toss-Up
Minnesota from Likely Democrat to Lean Democratic
Michigan from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Missouri from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Montana from Lean Republican to Solid Republican
Nebraska’s 2nd District from Tilt Democratic to Toss-Up Democratic
Ohio from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican
Pennsylvania from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
South Carolina from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Texas from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican
Utah from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Wisconsin from Toss-up to Tilt Republican