Oxford Economic Forecast Model Predicts a Defeat for Trump in November

Originally posted May 21, 2020

Donald Trump will lose 2020 election in a landslide defeat with America’s coronavirus-hit economy proving a ‘nearly insurmountable obstacle’ to him winning against Joe Biden, a new Oxford Economics forecasting model predicts The model predicts Trump will win just 35% of the popular vote due to the Covid-19 depression.Oxford experts say it it will take an ‘economic miracle’ for pocketbooks to favor Trump The model would see Joe Biden flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – undoing Trump’s 2016 victory The model predicts Biden will also take Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri in the mid-west as well as North Carolina – although not Arizona, which is a major Democratic target.The predicts Missouri will not be a battleground state in the 2020 election by either side The model has proven accurate in its predictions every year since 1948, except for 1968 and 1976, and works off the assumption that the U.S. economy will not have bounced back from the pandemic by this autumn, with unemployment rates above 13 percent, and household incomes six percent lower.

THE STATES BIDEN BELIEVES ARE IN PLAY 

Democrats’ presidential targets:

• Florida
• Iowa
• Maine (split its four electoral college votes in 2016 3-1 to Clinton) 
• Michigan
• Nebraska (one of its five electoral college votes) 
• North Carolina 
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania 
• Wisconsin

Las Vegas, NV·Posted May 21, 2020