Exponential growth can be almost invisible—until it explodes

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.

– Dr. Albert Bartlett

Early on, traditional linear growth outperforms exponential growth but then gets left behind, as illustrated in the accompanying chart. The authors cite the Human Genome Project as an example. In 1997, halfway through what was supposed to be a 15-year, $6 billion effort, the team had only sequenced 1 percent of the genome. Many experts called the project a historic failure. However, a few saw it differently. Ray Kurzweil, head of engineering at Google and a giant in the field of artificial intelligence, declared that 1 percent meant the project was halfway done. What he observed that others missed was that the project was on an exponential growth curve, not a linear one. And indeed, the project successfully completed in 2001, ahead of schedule and under budget.🧐