Political Earthquake In the Making: Trump Now Favored To Win the 2024 General Election Among Top UK Betting Houses

Former President Donald Trump is favored to win the 2024 US election, according to UK-based betting exchange Ladbrokes sportsbook, as well as London-based Smarkets.

As of October 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

• Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas (2013–present); candidate for president in 2016
• Matt Gaetz, United States Representative from FL-01 (2017–present)
• Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–present)
• Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021); 50th Governor of Indiana (2013–2017); United States Representative from IN-02 (2001–2003) and IN-06 (2003–2013)
• Francis X. Suarez, 43rd Mayor of Miami (2017–present)
• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021); Republican presidential nominee in 2020 and 2016 and Reform Party candidate in 2000

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent President Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term, although he hasn’t made it official yet if he will run.

As the Las Vegas Review-Journal notes, Trump surpassed Joe Biden last week – with Smarkets giving the former US president a 20% chance (4-1 odds) of winning in 2024 vs. Biden’s odds of winning at 19% and VP Kamala Harris’ odds at 13%.

“It’s a pretty staggering development to find a defeated one-term president taking over as favorite from the incumbent who beat him, but we know by now that Donald Trump is no ordinary politician,” said Smarkets head of political markets, Matthew Shaddick. “It’s early days, but the latest market signals suggest there is every chance we could be heading for a Biden vs. Trump rematch in 2024 with Trump currently having a very slight edge, according to the betting.”

At Ladbrokes, Trump is a +350 favorite (22.2% probability) over Biden (20% probability), and Harris (16.5% probability).

Trump’s odds of becoming the 2024 GOP nominee stand at 45%, according to Smarkets.

“Trump’s odds have been improving all year and in particular since Biden’s poll ratings began declining this summer,” said Shaddick, adding “There is absolutely no sign of Republican voters deserting him, and he leads every primary poll by a distance.

“Many forecasters had predicted that health or legal issues might stop Trump from re-election, but the latest Smarkets prices imply that there is 60% probability he’ll run for the White House again in three years’ time.”

At London’s Betfair, however, Biden is favored over Trump at 20% while Harris stands at 16.5%.

As the Review-Journal notes, wagering on the election isn’t permitted at US sportsbooks – however “At offshore books that operate illegally in the U.S., Trump is the +275 favorite over Biden (+325) and Harris (5-1) at BetOnline and the 3-1 favorite over Biden (+325) and Harris (5-1) at SportsBetting.ag.”