Trump has 87% a Chance of Winning the Election, According to the Stock Market

President Donald Trump has a very good chance of winning the 2020 presidential election against Joe Biden if a more than a 200-year overview of the stock market is to be believed.

That’s according to research from the Socionomic Institute, a group that has long used the stock market to predict elections and economic and cultural trends. 

The research, going back to George Washington, found 16 times in U.S. history when an incumbent president ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than 20% in the preceding three years. In 14 of those 16 times, the incumbent won reelection, giving a success rate of 87%. If the trend holds through November 3rd, President Trump could be No. 15.

The two times it didn’t work out, for reference, were George H.W. Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 even though the stock market was up 38% in the preceding three years, and John Adams, who didn’t win his reelection bid in 1800, despite the fact that the value of capital in the U.S. chartered banks had risen by 30% in the previous 5 years. (At the time, federally chartered banks were the only publicly traded stocks in the young American republic.)

“The stock market is an indicator of social mood,” said Matthew Lampert, who is the director of research of the group. “Historically, a more positive trend in the market and social mood is associated with a win for the incumbent.”

That gives Mr. Trump a pretty clear historical edge.