The Most Accurate Polls Over the Last 4 Elections

Robert Cahaly, the senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania — two key states he carried — heading into Election Day. (Cahaly did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.) Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his highly improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton.

Two years later, Cahaly’s method once again proved solid. In one of the most polled races of the cycle, Trafalgar stood alone as the only polling firm to correctly show a Ron DeSantis gubernatorial victory in Florida – as well as Rick Scott winning the Senate race there.

Trafalgar also correctly predicted Senate outcomes in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Texas, and West Virginia, making it the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races. Based on its record in 2016 and 2018, Trafalgar is the polling firm to watch as the 2020 General Election heats up.

Researchers also found CBS News was among the best polling in those battleground states. The CBS team built this interactive battleground tracker for you online. However, political scientists state that the polls don’t become a really useful predictor of the election outcome until September.

In regards to national polling, after proving to be America’s most accurate national poll in the 2004, 2008, 2012, and the 2016 presidential elections, the IBD/TIPP poll has now been the most accurate in each of the last four election cycles.

The second most accurate poll according to Real Clear Politics according to the report was the national Rasmussen poll of likely voters. Although the end result showed that Clinton would win the 2016 race, the overall numbers are very close to the actual result, as long as you just count the popular vote. Clinton led Trump by 2 percentage points in the poll, nearly the same number as she led Trump in the overall popular vote.