War Between Greece and Turkey Is Now a Real Possibility

Greek national media reported on Tuesday, that the Greek Armed Forces are on high alert, at a time when the eastern Mediterranean region is witnessing tensions with Turkey due to its eastern Mediterranean oil and gas exploration.

The Greek newspaper Ekathimirini reports that “Greece’s armed forces were placed in a state of absolute readiness, with units of the Hellenic Navy and Air Force deployed in the wider sea area where the Turkish research was expected.”

This move comes at a time when the Turkish Navy is escorting the seismic exploration vessel, Oruc Reis, near or within Greek-Cypriot territorial waters, which is currently being closely monitored by Egypt and Greece.

On Monday, the Turkish Navy issued a navigational notification saying that the Turkish vessel would conduct seismic surveys in the eastern Mediterranean during the next two weeks.

In response, the Greek Foreign Ministry announced that Athens had urged Turkey to stop illegal actions in the eastern Mediterranean, and that these activities were provocative and undermine peace and security in the region.

“Greece will not accept blackmail. It will defend its sovereign rights,” the Greek foreign ministry statement said.

“When the Oruc Reis accompanied by ships of the Turkish Navy entered the Greek continental shelf, Greek warships sent messages at a frequency of about 15 minutes requesting the vessel’s removal from the area,” the Ekathimirini reports. 

“The messages went unanswered by the vessel which, however, moving at a low speed – similar to that appropriate for a search process – had prepared cables to lower to the seabed in order to proceed with research activities in the area,” the report continues.

Thus far Greece has reportedly been able to successfully prevent and delay Turkish seismic exploration. 

Under terms of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Greece claims territorial waters around its islands for exploration and exploitation of marine resources. Turkey is not a UNCLOS member (nor, for that matter, is the United States) but, unlike the United States, Turkey ignores customary law and stands alone in its interpretation.

In effect, Turkey seeks to revise not only international law but also potential control over the resources of hundreds of Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. Turkey has the largest indigenous navy in the region and promises to escort the Oruc Reis; there are at least eighteen warships in the immediate vicinity. Given the stakes, Greece has no choice but to respond, hence the panic in European Union capitals.

European leaders also recognize that this is not just a dispute about the Aegean Sea. In November 2019, Turkey signed a deal with Libya establishing a joint maritime boundary between the two countries, something only possible if Turkey ignores Greek islands up to and including Crete, an island more than 25 percent larger than the state of Delaware.

If Turkish President Erdoğan continues to push forward in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece will have no choice but to fight. Certainly, Athens should consider all options to be on the table. If such a scenario comes to pass, the United States will not be neutral, and will likely recognize publicly that Turkey is the aggressor and its claims invalid.